Garage Wine

Flushing your dollars down the drain ...

2006-04-28T09:21:00.000-07:00

Portland's ~~Voter Owned Elections~~ Taxpayer Funded Elections are circling the drain and leaving skids.

Now it's revealed that Portland utility customers (presumably water and sewer customers) contributed $284,000 this year for public financing of City Council campaigns.

Even though the water and sewer departments are owned and operated by the City, they are enterprises. As enterprises, IIRC, the City cannot earn a "profit" on these departments to cross subsidize (e.g.) the general fund. However, the Oregonian story suggests that water and sewer fees are being used to fund City elections.

Voter owned? Nope. Taxpayer funded? Yes and more ...

Portland is the first city in the country with Poo Powered Elections!

Just keep flushing, we'll make more.

Urban renewal mischief

2006-04-28T06:38:00.000-07:00

Urban renewal is a scam. It "works" where it isn't needed (Ex. A: Pearl District), and fails where it is (Ex. B: Gateway).

The Central Eastside Urban Renewal Area was formed in 1986. Twenty years later, all we have to show for it is the Vera Katz Eastbank Esplanade. One wag remarked that naming it after Katz was the only way to get her to visit Portland's Eastside.

Now, PDC is quietly attempting to extend the life of the Central Eastside Urban Renewal Area. The Commission voted 4-0 to extend the life another 8 years and bump the debt limit by another 34 percent.

But, this time we'll going to get a STREETCAR! Eastsiders have been pining for a streetcar ever since the Belmont trolleys stopped running decades ago. A STREETCAR! Just imagine all the transit oriented development we'll get. A STREETCAR! The increases in property taxes will pay for improvements many times over. A STREETCAR!

After 28 years of urban renewal, the Central Eastside will have a needle-strewn esplanade, some sort of mixed-use dealy at the Burnside Bridgehead, and a STREETCAR.

Hurry up, PDC. The next City Council may not be so amenable to urban renewal.

How Dan Saltzman lost the vote

2006-04-28T06:28:00.000-07:00

City Commissioner Dan Saltzman was a tough call. He supported the Aerial Tram from Day 1. He created the Office of Sustainable Development. He pimped the Children's Initiative which clearly stepped over the City-County division of labor. But the #1 thing he did that would have earned a vote was his vigorous push for reform of Portland's biggest money suck, the police and fire disability system.

Today, the Oregonian reports that he has flopped again and decided to "appease the unions" and support Policeman Potter's plan.

That's one less vote for Saltzman and one more write-in for my cat.

A Tram with a linchpin?

2006-04-10T10:11:00.000-07:00

Webster defines a linchpin as a locking pin inserted crosswise (as through the end of an axle or shaft). The OHSU and it newspaper, characterize it as a dazzling tram that zaps doctors and patients from Pill Hill to the South Waterfront.

With the Oregonian's lastest linchpin linking, the Wino started to wonder where did all this linchpin nonsense begin?

After some digging, I found the first reference the Tram-as-linchpin in this piece by [drumroll] Randy Gragg (Sunday Oregonian, June 23, 2002):

The tram, to proponents like Williams, is the linchpin in a network of streetcar lines and light-rail lines to downtown, the central eastside and Lake Oswego. With OHSU at its center, Williams thinks, North Macadam could become an educational magnet for collaborative and branch programs from Oregon's entire university system -- "the best of the best," he says -- resulting in the major research campus the city has long lacked.

According to Kohler, Phase 2 discussions are under way for a new dental school, a new facility for OHSU and Oregon State University's joint college of pharmacy, a joint Portland State University/OHSU bioengineering building and possibly a new facility for Beaverton-based Oregon Graduate Institute.

But in a classic developers' poker gambit, OHSU and Williams' group say all bets are off without the tram and streetcar.

"This isn't brain surgery," Williams says. "We've got problems on that hill. Trams are all over the world. They're proven. It's not a toy. It's about connections and people's time.

The price tag according to Gragg: $10.2 million to $15.85 million.

Followup: Stay away from OHSU

2006-02-19T06:53:00.000-08:00

Front page of today's Oregonian reaffirms by advice to avoid surgery at OHSU at all costs. If one of their surgeons or "agents" botches the operation, their liability is capped at $200,000. The mother of the boy featured in the story sums it up perfectly:

If I had known about this, I never would have trusted OHSU with my son.

Peter Demand-a-Tram Kohler's response:

We provide services to lots of folks, and we have a of of missions that are important to the public. Where do we want to spend the dollars? For the greater good, or for a few individuals who would benefit substantially?

Ouch, Peter.

Erik Sten's stock photos

2006-02-18T15:38:00.000-08:00

Erik Sten is using his "clean money" seed funds to purchase ads on BlueOregon. Hmm ... I thought seed money could only be used to collect $5 contributions ...

Anyway, curiosity caused be to click on over to his homepage. I love political homepages. I'd love to see the campaign experts ($$$) explain what pictures to put on there: old folks, minorities, and kids. Sten's got 'em all.

In four pictures, he was able to get one woman, one silver hair (but she doesn't look all that old), two children, and two African-Americans. Good show.

Bad choice of colors on the name plate. This is a Seahawks town, Erik.

Cell phones for schools

2006-02-17T06:45:00.000-08:00

The Oregonian weighs in on Portland's school funding problems by suggesting a 1-year 5% tax on ~~wireless service~~ cell phones.

These sorts of taxes are troubling. There is no linkage between the thing being taxed and the service being provided. Why tax cell phones? How about coffee or microbrews or hamburgers? Why not every good or service that is sold?

In the rest of the world such taxes are called sales taxes. We can't have sales taxes in Oregon because the electorate won't allow it.

A cell phone tax is a sales tax. Cell providers sell a service and the City would slap on 5% to the bill. If it quacks like a duck ...

This is not too surprising from the O. From time to time, the O shoots lustful glances at the sales tax. In 2003, the editorial board twice recommended a statewide sales tax.

From the Out of Thin Air Department

2006-02-14T10:55:00.000-08:00

Well over 80 articles and opinion pieces link or unlink the Portland Aerial Tram with $1.9 billion in investments in Portland's South Waterfront. No article--not a single one--questions the number. Where did the $1.9 billion number come from?

A footnote. A footnote citing a "developer forecast." I have no idea who that developer could be.

Whose Tram is it?

2006-02-14T07:44:00.000-08:00

Reading the Tribune the other day, I noticed that they described the [rimshot] as the OHSU aerial tram.

So what?

From about 2003 until recently, the press recited the party line by describing it as the Portland aerial tram. (This was promulgated by the PR flaks at PATI to make the public think they "owned" the tram ... there's that ownership thing again.)

What was it called before 2003? The OHSU aerial tram.

"Instanbul was Constantinople
Now its Istanbul, not Constantinople ..."

Portland doublespeak

2006-02-14T07:34:00.000-08:00

Willamette Week is reporting that the attempt to repeal what the City calls "Voter Owned Elections" likely has failed.

The program was originally called "Clean Money" but none of the commissioners could identify anyone--or admit to--taking "dirty" money. From this backseat fumbling was conceived "Voter Owned Elections."

But wait, are they really voter owned? Of course not. They are taxpayer financed and there is no ownership to speak of. Almost every voter pays taxes, but not every taxpayer is a voter. This is typical of Erik Sten's initiatives: a complicated programs that shift dollars from tax payers to tax consumers with ownership in quotes.

Hey, kids ... It's Wonder Warren!

2006-02-08T11:35:00.000-08:00

Billionaire Warren Buffett, is set to star in a DVD series as a cartoon version of himself, dispensing advice to children ages 5-12.

The series, "The Secret Millionaire's Club," will feature the words, voice and likeness of Buffett, who is known as the Oracle of Omaha and runs Nebraska-based investment company Berkshire Hathaway.

The 13-title series features an unscrupulous developer snapping up properties in Omaha and foreclosing on the local youth center. Four children raise money to rescue the center and turn to Buffett for weekly financial and investment advice.

What's it cost to overshadow?

2006-02-03T06:36:00.000-08:00

Everyone knows by now that the Tram's costs are now going to be at least $55 million, according to the Pinnell/Busch report. That was somewhat predictable. Randy Leonard predicted months ago that the costs would be close to $60 million.

The report is 21 single-spaced pages describing all the risks, pitfalls, and potential cost overruns. What does the Oregonian focus on? One sentence on the first page of the report: "The Portland Aerial Tram, when complete, will be a dramatic, one-of-a-kind facility that will become a Portland landmark--easily overshadowing its earlier history of budget and schedule problems." I guess overshadowing is a bargain at any price.

In its first article on the $55 million price tage and in today's editorial, the Oregonian parrots the one blurb that has absoluting nothing to do with engineering or cost estimates: "a successful tram could eclipse the saga of cost overruns."

Could someone please let me know how I can value an overshadow or an eclipse?

An aerial tram treasure trove

2006-01-31T07:06:00.000-08:00

By way of BoJack, Jim Karlock provides a trove of treasure detailing how the City of Portland, PDC, PDOT, OHSU, a convicted felon, and a Tommy Bahama-clad Segway driver plundered property tax dollars and buried them on Portland's South Waterfront.

A pajama army of investigators is already digging through the documents to find out if the City really is on the hook (and if so, for how much) for pulling funding of the Portland Aerial Tram.

As one easily distracted by shiny objects, I found some other items worthy of mention.

Did you know the Tram will enable OHSU to provide the best health care services and the best research in the WORLD? Yep, it's on page 2 of the Development Agreement.

OHSU facilities within the Project Area and the Marquam Hill Campus, linked by the Tram, will create OHSU’s Central City Campus. The Central City Campus will enable OHSU to continue to grow and achieve national preeminence [having rank, dignity, or importance superior to all others] as a health and research institution, providing Oregonians with world-class [being of the highest degree of excellence or importance in the world] health care services, access to leading edge [meaningless: the forward part of something that moves or seems to move] clinical trials, world-class [ditto] research leading to commercial development and a diversified job base, and collaborative academic and research programs with other higher education institutions.

Certainly such a preeminent institution wouldn't need anything more that a Tram to accomplish such lofty goals. Oh, but it does. Just to make sure that pesky competition doesn't stand in the way of its preeminence, PDC colluded with with the Central District developers (yes, that includes OHSU) to ensure that no one competes with OHSU on the South Waterfront.

PDC agrees to not actively recruit or provide subsidy to facilities that include clinical facilities available to the general public (which does not include clinical facilities ancillary to research which involve only clinical trials) in the South Waterfront Plan Area that compete with OHSU’s facilities in the Central City Campus for a period of fifteen (15) years after the Effective Date, except as allowed by this Section 11 or with OHSU’s consent.

Oh, how I wish I knew a good antitrust attorney ...

The Potter income tax--a very bad idea

2006-01-28T06:54:00.000-08:00

Some reasons why the Potter Income Tax for the City of Portland is a very, very bad idea.

Portland Public Schools already have a method by which to raise money. It is called a "local option" property tax. PPS had one in place until 2005, when it expired. A nebulous group of "school supporters" decided among themselves not to try to renew it.

Portland's teachers union. They did not make any good faith effort to reduce Portland Public School high and growing health insurance costs. Oh sure, a blue ribbon commission convened and sat down with the union to study the issue. Their conclusion: "It's hard." The teachers' concession: to make a small out-of-pocket contribution to their own (and their families) health insuracne costs.

There is no such thing as "dollars in the classroom." School/tax advocates will promise that almost every single penny raised will go to the classroom. No extra credit for guessing what the #1 classroom expense is. Extra dollars in the classroom means extra dollars of teacher salaries and benefits. Will we see smaller classes? No. Will we see more computers? No. Will we see more extracurricular activities? No. Will we see pressure to increase teacher salaries? Yes.

The tax is not small--0.95 percent is a huge amount of money. Don't worry, the tax advocates will remind you over and over and over and over and over and over and over that the tax is less than 1 percent. They will also remind you time and time again, that its equal to the costs of double non-fat mocha carmel latte per day. Would you pay a sales of the same amount? Would you like a 1 percent pay cut?

There is no such thing as a temporary tax. A city income tax would require a change to Portland's Charter. The text of the charter change has not been made available. There is a 99 percent probability that the text of the charter amendment will enable this and future city income taxes. Moreover future taxes may not require voter approval. Read that charter amendment carefully.

A Portland city income tax is a sure way to ensure that the Oregon Legislature does little to provide more school funding. Legislators outside of Portland do care one whit about Portland except in our ability to send tax dollars elsewhere throughout the state. Portland Public Schools have had declining enrollment for nearly 40 years. Why should the Legislature care? Portland Public Schools can't reign in their health insurance costs. Why should the Legislature care? Portland has its own income tax for schools. Why should the Legislature top it up with more state dollars?

Ted Ferrioli. State senator Ted Ferrioli represents John Day, Oregon. He is a different breed of school advocate. He strives for "equalization" in which every district gets equal funding per student. In the past, he has sought way to offset the Multnomah County income tax with reduced funding from the state. He didn't succeed last time. This time he might. If he does, the extra money raised by the income tax would be washed away by reduced money from the state. Gambling the only other activity the give you nothing for something.

Conversated?

2006-01-26T11:36:00.000-08:00

In the old media's drive to stay relevant/keep it real/bring it to the people, some have tried to used the lingo with which hoi polloi are most familiar. So, if you're interviewing a black chef on NPR, you talk about collard greens. And, if you're asking questions to the President, you use Bushisms. From today's press conference:

Q: Why is it that this administration is not allowing the senior--your senior staff that you conversated with prior to Hurricane Katrina, during and after, to testify, to interview or talk with congressional leaders? And why not push Michael Brown, who is now a private citizen, to go before them, as he is what many are calling a linchpin to the whole issue?

Is conversated really a word? According to Google, it is.

Cost overruns? Blame the Swiss!

2006-01-24T10:41:00.000-08:00

The latest shower in the Tram blamestorm dumps on the Swiss. Before the Swiss, it was evil Chinese who flood Wal-Mart with cheap products driving up the price of steel with their damnable industrial progress. Now, those perfidious Swiss drove up the value of their currency and the floating bubble tram cars are too expensive. Credit goes to the Oregonian for fueling this myth in March 2005, when the U.S. dollar was near a two-year low against the franc.

The project also has been hurt by the decline of the dollar because the tram cabs, which can hold nearly 80 people, are being manufactured by a Swiss company.

Now the Tribune fans the dying embers.

Since then, unforeseen difficulties, such as the dollar’s collapse versus the Swiss franc--the main contractor is Swiss--as well as a skyrocketing steel market and post-Hurricane Katrina inflation in the construction industry have helped add another $15 million or so, bringing the total to $45 million.

Wrong-o, Tribune. As shown in the graph below, the U.S. dollar is only about 6% lower than the 2003 average. (And only about 9% lower than January 1, 2003). Even in the worst case, the dollar-franc exchange rate would account for no more than a 10% increase in costs(and that assumes that the entire costs of the Tram are paid for in francs). Remember, we're looking at a 200% increase.

Keep trying, Tramsters. You can't pin this on those damn foreigners.

Tram-I-am

2006-01-23T05:56:00.000-08:00

A bit of Tram nonsense deserves an illustration.

Reaons why I'll never have surgery at OHSU

2006-01-22T09:16:00.000-08:00

I hope that the spotlight that the Tram brouhaha catches in the shadows several other "issues" related to OHSU's enterprises. Keeping it short, here are the reasons I will never have major surgery at OHSU.

Even if I spend time and effort searching out the right, board certified doctor, there is some large probability that some 20-30 year old resident will do most of the work. Remember OHSU is a teaching hospital. (Do you get a price discount? Who knows and, with insurance, who cares?)
OHSU does not have to report any malpractice claims against it or its "agents." This is a great way to shield incompetence and/or negligence. Private hospitals must report to the state any malpractice claims against it.
If the doctor/resident messes up, the absolute most you can collect from OHSU or its "agents" is $500,000 (and maybe less). Ask KATU anchor Ken Ackerman if that is enough to compensate for spending the rest of his life in a wheelchair.
The Tram and other SoWa expenses add to the enterprise's cost structure. The only result can be either (a) increased costs of care, and/or (b) decreased quality of care.

For more see the Oregonian's story on Ken Ackerman's lawsuit against OHSU, and KATU's story on OHSU's special status that allows it to dodge most of the damages in lawsuits that discipline private enterprises.

Bottom line: If you have major surgery stay away from anything (doctor, facilities, etc.) that has even whiff of OHSU. Even a slight affiliation can turn into a big shield if dollars are on the line.

Get your Aerial Tram swag here!

2006-01-21T07:25:00.000-08:00

Nothing wakes you up better than a cup of coffee from your Portland Aerial Tram [rimshot] mug. Or a jog around Mt. Tabor reservoir in your Tram [rimshot] sweatshirt. Yessirree, Tram swag is here. Be the first on your block to own one. You'll probably have to explain that [rimshot] is not some new boy band, though.

(Am I the only one who doesn't think that tram car can hold 79 people?)

Followup
Credit where credit is due goes to the comedy team of Jack Bogdanski and Bill McDonald for developing the [rimshot] notation.

The Portland Aerial Tram--a case for fraud

2006-01-21T06:46:00.000-08:00

Almost everyone outside of City Hall and off of Pill Hill characterize the Portland Aerial Tram as an expensive joke. Yes, even the staid Oregonian says that the Tram is the butt of jokes. That is why the sound of the [rimshot] is often heard whenever the Tram is mentioned around town.

In a state where ambition is derided and enterprise is scorned (unless the enterprise makes fancy coffee, strong drinks, and hip tatoos), the tram's price increases could be chalked up to slacker-culture incompetence.

But, what was sown in incompetence has flowered into fraud. Once Matt Brown and Vic Rhodes discovered the mistake, they put on their NASA uniforms ("we thought the shuttle might blow up, but we didn't want to unnecessarily concern anyone") and covered it up in hopes of covering their butts and securing their sinecures with Homer Williams and Dyke "S&L" Dame.

If the Tram project [rimshot] were a corporation--wait, it is a corporation, Portland Aerial Tram Inc.--a potential fraud of this size could generate as much publicity as Enron or Capital Consultants for a go-getter prosecutor. Here's the case laid out in roughly chronological order:

Matt Brown and other staff create an error-laden budget of $15.5 million for the Tram [rimshot]. Whether the omission of soft costs and design costs was malfeasance or negligence is up to the judge or jury.
Matt Brown and Vic Rhodes enter into business relationships with Williams and Dame, while maintaining their positions at the City and with PATI. (Note to Sam Adams: Next focus your political capital on putting a halt to such moonlighting arrangements rather than on registering lobbyists.)
Matt Brown and Vic Rhodes sign off a 2nd budget for $28.9 million.
Matt Brown and Vic Rhodes sign off on a 3rd budget for $45.0 million, blaming spikes in the price of steel and labor. (Again, whether the failure to hedge against increases in the most expensive component is malfeasance or negligence should be up to the judge or jury.)

Both Matt Brown and Vic Rhodes clearly benefitted from their relationship with Williams & Dame. At best, these relationships softened their incentives to be diligent and forthcoming. At worst, these relationship caused them to commit fraud. Do I sniff a grand jury forming somewhere?

PS: According the the Oregonian, Vic Rhodes did quit this time.

My proudest moment on the Internet

2006-01-20T16:05:00.000-08:00

When I was growing up every kid wanted to be an astronaut or President. Times have changed and so have I. I no longer want to be an astronaut or President. Part of it is due to the fact that neither occupations has much appeal anymore. Another part is due to reduced ambition.

Over the past year or two, I've been following the Q&A on Ask Metafilter. Then, one day, the site admin allowed the person who posed a question to flag an answer as "best." With my diminished aspirations, I then aspired to having one of my posts be so useful that the poster would flag my answer as the "best." (It's sad, I know. It is reminiscent of Sally Fields "You like me, you really like me!" Oscar acceptance speech.)

Tuesday, it happened--the Wino's post was (a tie for) "best." Yippee for me.